The co-main event features the former UFC Middleweight title holder Sean Strickland and the Brazilian Beast Paulo Costa. In this match-up, Strickland is preparing to rebound from his loss against Dricus Du Plessis and reclaim his position at the top. Meanwhile, Costa also aims to regain momentum from his last loss. The air is crisp between the two from heated arguments.
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The other fights on the card include Kevin Holland vs Michal Oleksiejczuk in the middleweight division, Jailton Almeida vs Alexander Romanov in the heavyweight division, and Randy Brown vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in welterweight, making it a night not to miss out on.
With a showdown keeping the fans on a countdown, here’s a highlight of what to expect from the night. Let’s break it all down!
Islam vs Dustin | Lightweight Title Bout | Main Event UFC 302
After a streak of 13 back-to-back bouts, the champion is all set to face the big underdog. Both fighters have a southpaw stance with an almost similar height and reach. Islam stands at 5’10” with a 70” reach, while Dustin is 5’9” with 72”. Islam holds an exceptional record of 25-1-0, while Dustin also boasts a massive record of 30-8-0.
Dustin’s fights last slightly longer than Islam’s. The average duration of Islam’s fights is 9 minutes and 46 seconds, being a classic submission fighter. On the contrary, Dustin lands somewhere close with an average fight time of 9 minutes and 53 seconds, exhibiting striking supremacy.
Striking
Islam Makhachev has displayed amazing striking potential during his last two fights, achieving an impressive strike rate of 2.46 strikes landed per minute. He exhibits a striking accuracy of 60%, with a striking defence rate of 61%. Beating a phenom like Alexander Volkanovski consecutively in UFC 284 and UFC 294, there’s no denying the capability of Islam and that he has everything it takes to give a tough fight.
However, Dustin, the Diamond Poirier, has proven to be a better striker. While Makhachev has secured five of his 25 victories by knockout or TKO, only a few of these wins were initiated with strikes from a standing position.
Poirier, on the other hand, has won half of his victories through knockouts, many being clean TKOs on the feet. The most recent example is his triumph against Saint-Denis where he showcased his striking prowess.
When it comes to stats, Poirier has a much higher strike rate, landing 5.45 strikes per minute. His ability to absorb strikes is much greater than Islam’s, with an absorption rate of 4.36 strikes per minute.
Nevertheless, there is still a high possibility of Islam taking a win on the feet. However, when compared statistically, Poirier is evidently a much more dangerous striker.
Submissions
The way Islam has recently improved his striking ability, Poirier has shown himself to be a grappler, too. Poirier has finished three fights through submission, the solid proof being the one against D’arce choke.
However, while Poirier has highlighted his proficiency, Islam is, without a doubt, a far better submission artist. His submission against Charles Oliveira in UFC 280 explains that, as Oliveira is known as one the best submission fighters in history.
Although Islam has defeated more men by submissions, Poirier attempts them more. His submission rate is 1.4 per 15 minutes in comparison to the lightweight champion’s 1. Since Poirier has lost three fights by submission, the outcome of this fight gets pretty clear if submission stats are considered.
Takedowns
MMA enthusiasts are well aware of the wrestling excellence of Islam. In fact, there are hardly any people in MMA who are as good at wrestling as Islam.
According to UFC stats, Makhachev has attempted 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, with a success rate of 60 percent. This contrasts significantly with Poirier, who attempts 1.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and succeeds only 36 percent of the time, which emphasises the wrestling superiority of Makhachev as well as his ability to maintain control on the ground.
While Poirier is a competent wrestler, he falls behind Makhachev many steps. When wrestling is brought into question, Islam holds a dominant edge.
| Attributes | Islam Makhachev 25-1-0 | Islam vs Dustin Comparison | Dustin Poirier 30-8-0 (1 NC) | Edge |
| Striking | 2.46 | Strikes Landed per Min | 5.45 | Dustin |
| 60% | Striking Accuracy | 51% | ||
| 1.27 | Strikes Absorbed per Min | 2.36 | ||
| Submission | 1 | Submission Rate/15 Mins | 1.4 | Islam |
| Takedown | 3.17 | Takedown Average/15 Mins | 1.33 | Islam |
| 60% | Takedown Accuracy | 36% |
Islam vs Dustin Prediction
Knowing that Poirier has his last chance at winning the championship, he might take the belt by knockout. However, when it comes to a more plausible outcome, Islam has an edge.
There is a higher chance for Poirier to find himself taken down and controlled the way Makhachev has in his latest bouts. Poirier has been seen to have a history of tapping out and if he is caught in good shots early in the fight, we might see him repeating his history.
While Conor McGregor has taken the side of the lesser favourite and believes the Russian to be susceptible to particular shots, we at RDX Sports believe Islam will be able to retain his title.
Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa | Middleweight Bout | Co-Main Event UFC 302
MMA aficionados, brace yourselves for another exciting bout on the same night! The ex-UFC middleweight title holder Sean Strickland challenges the “Borrachinha”, Paulo Costa. While Strickland is fighting to rebound from his loss to Dricus Du Plessis, Costa is anticipating to catapult his 2-3 record from his last five fights.
Strickland enters the octagon with an impressive record of 28-6-0 and faces the powerhouse Costa with a 14-3-0 record. Both are orthodox fighters with similar physical attributes.
While Costa is a Brazilian bull, Strickland is a calculated kickboxer. As per stats, Costa is a more aggressive striker with a 58% striking accuracy compared to Strickland’s 41%. On the other hand, Strickland seems to be a better defensive fighter with a 62% significant strike defence compared to Costa’s 47%.
While Costa wins the audience with devastating power, relentless pressure and granite chin, Tarzan keeps his opponent guessing with sharp jabs and great footwork. Unlike Costa, Strickland throws a high volume of strikes, aiming to rack up points rather than knockouts. However, he has been dropped before, raising questions about his chin. Additionally, Strickland might struggle if Costa can corner him and unleash his relentless pressure.
Sean vs Paulo Prediction
Our prediction is that Paulo will be able to regain his momentum against Strickland. His striking prowess and grappling techniques are apt to exploit Sean’s weaknesses. Although lacking in experience, he will be a tough opponent to take down.
Conclusion
UFC 302 promises to deliver an electrifying night of fights, with Islam Makhachev defending his lightweight title against Dustin Poirier in the main event. Poirier’s striking prowess will be tested against Makhachev’s well-rounded skills, making for a thrilling clash. In the co-main event, Sean Strickland aims to bounce back against Paulo Costa, who seeks to regain his momentum. With other exciting matchups on the card, UFC 302 is set to be a night of high-stakes action that fans won’t want to miss.
